DAILY MARKET REPORT – 25/09/2025
A small downward movement, again unwinding the previous days session, as the market continues to hold station amid a lack of driving factors.
Among the possible factors, which often lately include comments made by President Trump on any topic, include comments made by Bulgaria and Slovakia in response to the latest EU sanctions package on Russia. The expectation to reduce and stop the purchase of Russian energy, for some countries, is clearly more difficult than others.
No change to the fundamentals with temperatures remaining steady in the latest forecast for the weeks ahead and the Commitment of Traders report issued yesterday showed a very small net gain on length held by Investment Funds, after weeks of steady decline.
In the coming days, the summer delivery period will come to an end and we enter the winter delivery period where we can start to see more volatility in relation to weather impacts on market prices.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.90 (from €32.27) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.49p (from 80.33p).
Asgard remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 288mcm (266). EU gas storage showing at 82.00% (81.96%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (1).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 85p (vs 80p and 86p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £85)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£77) and Front Season at £83 (£84).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($68) and EUAs are at €76 (€77). Henry Hub is at $2.86 ($2.85) and JKM is at $11.22 ($11.36) with TTF Equiv of $10.98 ($11.16).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 25/09/2025
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