Market Insights 23/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 23/09/2025

A continued downward move seen in yesterdays session, further unwinding the gains seen during the past week.

Fundamentals remain unchanged with, despite the next few days, temperatures expected to remain close to seasonal normal.

EU gas storage levels now comfortably in the 80% zone and Norwegian gas flows increasing back towards full throttle – despite a small reduction due to unplanned outages.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.84 (from €32.31) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.05p (from 80.05p).

Troll, Skarv and Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 277mcm (287). EU gas storage showing at 81.85% (81.60%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 85p (vs 80p and 86p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £91 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£76) and Front Season at £83 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($67) and EUAs are at €76 (€78). Henry Hub is at $2.81 ($2.89) and JKM is at $11.27 ($11.37) with TTF Equiv of $11.03 ($11.12).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.