Market Insights 22/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 22/09/2025

After a couple of upward moving sessions during the course of last week, Friday saw a reset downward move to close the week.

News relating to the sanctions package being more aggressive on Russian LNG, albeit only slightly, had little impact on the market.

Similarly, temperature outlooks for the weeks ahead show seasonal normal temperatures to be expected – except some cooler temperatures to be seen this week.

Norwegian gas flows are now increasing, despite a number of assets reporting issues, as planned maintenance comes to an end.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.31 (from €32.95) and the NBP Front Month contract at 80.05p (from 81.50p).

Troll, Skarv, Oseberg and Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 287mcm (248). EU gas storage showing at 81.60% (81.09%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 80p, Front Season 86p (vs 82p and 87p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 83p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £76)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£77) and Front Season at £84 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($67) and EUAs are at €78 (€78). Henry Hub is at $2.89 ($2.94) and JKM is at $11.37 ($11.53) with TTF Equiv of $11.12 ($11.38).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.