Market Insights 19/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 19/09/2025

A small push upwards seen in yesterdays session.

This is mostly on the back of Norwegian maintenance coming to an end but with some unplanned outages being announced on two of the biggest parts of the system.

That coincides with the European Commission expected to release its 19th package of sanctions on Russia shortly – widely now expected to potentially include a more aggressive stance on LNG. Previously this had a light touch, but comments made yesterday suggest that approach now change in the upcoming package.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.95 (from €32.40) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.50p (from 79.52p).

Kollsnes and Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 248mcm (234). EU gas storage showing at 81.09% (80.97%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €33 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 82p, Front Season 87p (vs 80p and 86p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £76 (from £48)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£75) and Front Season at £85 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($68) and EUAs are at €78 (€77). Henry Hub is at $2.94 ($3.10) and JKM is at $11.53 ($11.48) with TTF Equiv of $11.38 ($11.23).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.