Market Insight 17/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/09/2025

Small movements once again seen in yesterdays session.

President Trump is now in the UK and eyes will be on anything that he says or announces whilst here as he likely faces questions around progress on the Ukraine conflict and impact of global tariffs and sanctions.

Meanwhille energy markets look towards the fundamentals and temperatures are expected to drop a little early next week before recovering. Wind generation, which has been high in recent days, falls away today and spot prices reflect that, although prices do dip later in the day as wind levels rise again. The rest of this week looks a bit choppy and prices may continue to reflect that – and then fall away to lower levels for the rest of the month.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.33 (from €32.15) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.30p (from 78.54p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 235mcm (232). EU gas storage showing at 80.83% (80.58%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 86p (vs 79p and 85p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £75 (from £30)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£74) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $68 ($67) and EUAs are at €78 (€77). Henry Hub is at $3.10 ($3.04) and JKM is at $11.45 ($11.33) with TTF Equiv of $11.24 ($11.10).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.