Market Insights 16/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 16/09/2025

Wind generation has helped keep a lid on gas prices thanks to a lack of need for it to generate power in recent days – and that was reflected in a small downward movement in yesterdays session.

EU gas stocks have now passed a key milestone – the 80% mark. That will also give some level of comfort to the markets as we quickly approach in the winter delivery period in just a couple of weeks time.

Wind generation is still expected to be quite strong for selected days in the coming week, and temperatures are also expected to be above seasonal normal for the coming days, before settling down for the rest of the month in the latest forecasts.

Today sees President Trump on his state visit to the UK where many topics are likely to be discussed. This will likely see traders from all global markets once again glued to his words to ascertain any indication of what might come next in terms of tariffs, peace deals and any other surprises he may wish to share – all of which may influence market direction.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.15 (from €32.66) and the NBP Front Month contract at 78.54p (from 80.16p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 232mcm (236). EU gas storage showing at 80.58% (79.60%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 85p (vs 80p and 86p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 783)
UK Power Base spot £30 (from £12)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£75) and Front Season at £83 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($67) and EUAs are at €77 (€76). Henry Hub is at $3.04 ($2.94) and JKM is at $11.33 ($11.36) with TTF Equiv of $11.10 ($11.24).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.