DAILY MARKET REPORT – 12/09/2025
A bit of bearish movement seen yesterday.
This appears largely caused by the European Commission, whose representatives were in Washington to discuss phasing out Russian oil and gas. The result of those discussions is that, despite the US pushing for this to be delivered much harder and faster than planned, Europe feels the set targets are already stretched and it would not be possible to bring the targets forward.
That may have given some relief to the market in that supply could be a concern at an earlier stage, hence seeing a downward movement in yesterdays session.
Temperature forecasts, which remain key as we approach winter delivery, continue to show seasonal normal levels for the coming weeks. UK wind generation is high this week, and this is reflected in the spot prices which are depressed to low and negative values in places. The forecast for the coming weeks shows some volatility in generation levels to be expected.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.32 (from €33.12) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.22p (from 81.09p).
Dvalin on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 217mcm (225). EU gas storage showing at 79.87% (79.74%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 86p (vs 81p and 87p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 83p)
UK Power Base spot £33 (from £44)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£75) and Front Season at £83 (£85).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $66 ($67) and EUAs are at €76 (€77). Henry Hub is at $2.94 ($3.03) and JKM is at $11.35 ($11.34) with TTF Equiv of $11.12 ($11.37).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 12/09/2025
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