Market Insights 11/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/09/2025

No real movement seen in yesterdays session, with contracts ending where they started the day. This comes after several weeks of holding around this level, despite the odd day of rises or falls closely followed by a move in the opposite direction to maintain station.

EU gas storage injection levels, albeit close to the 80% mark, now slow as expected around this time of year. Germany, where the largest capacity is held, remains behind many of the other countries in terms of percentage levels – mostly caused by the low amounts held in the Rehden facility.

The latest weekly Commitment of Traders report showed an increase in net long positions held, increasing by around 11 TWh, the first increase seen in many weeks.

The European Commission, currently preparing its 19th package of sanctions on Russia, is under pressure from The White House to go further and faster in reducing energy-related transactions. European delegates are currently in Washington for talks with the US. Russia have made clear that no level of sanctions will divert their focus on the conflict in Ukraine.

Of course we are still waiting on a meeting between the Presidents of Russia, Ukraine and possibly the US to discuss a possible end of the conflict.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.12 (from €32.93) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.09p (from 80.78p).

Dvalin on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 225mcm (240). EU gas storage showing at 79.74% (79.63%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €33 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 87p (vs 81p and 87p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 81p)
UK Power Base spot £44 (from £75)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£76) and Front Season at £85 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($66) and EUAs are at €77 (€77). Henry Hub is at $3.03 ($3.12) and JKM is at $11.34 ($11.33) with TTF Equiv of $11.37 ($11.02).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.