Market Insights 09/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 09/09/2025

A bullish start to the week seen in yesterdays session, after many stagnant ones of late, mostly due to technical drivers.

Hungary, who continue to rely heavily on Russian gas, have said they will shortly be signing a long term gas supply deal – the source of which has not been revealed other than to suggest it is ‘Western’ and may give them various sources to improve security of supply.

UK wind generation is expected to be quite strong in the coming days before receding once again. Temperatures are also a little below season normal at the end of this week before returning to seasonal normal levels for the coming weeks.

Temperature will of course now become a key focus on the near term delivery contracts and will be a key driver of direction.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.06 (from €31.97) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.02p (from 77.89p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 240mcm (246). EU gas storage showing at 79.49% (79.24%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €33 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 88p (vs 78p and 85p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £85 (from £87)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£74) and Front Season at £85 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $66 ($66) and EUAs are at €77 (€76). Henry Hub is at $3.09 ($3.05) and JKM is at $11.35 ($11.30) with TTF Equiv of $11.02 ($11.02).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.