Market Insights 04/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/09/2025

Yet another rather muted session seen yesterday, setting the tone for the week so far, and the holding pattern continues for now.

The latest Commitment of Traders report showed, yet again, a further sizeable reduction in net long positions held by Investment Funds, now down to 42 TWh – the lowest level seen for a considerable time.

No change in fundamentals with Norwegian output remained throttled due to ongoing planned maintenance. EU gas stocks are now getting closer to the key 80% level, now under a couple of percentage points away.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.11 (from €31.77) and the NBP Front Month contract at 78.46p (from 78.01p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 245mcm (238). EU gas storage showing at 78.29% (78.08%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 78p, Front Season 85p (vs 78p and 85p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £77 (from £79)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£74) and Front Season at £83 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $68 ($69) and EUAs are at €75 (€74). Henry Hub is at $3.06 ($3.01) and JKM is at $11.23 ($11.25) with TTF Equiv of $11.01 ($10.87).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.