Market Insights 03/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 03/09/2025

A further muted session seen yesterday as the markets continue their holding station for the time being.

Underlying fundamentals remain unchanged, alongside no other significant news – particularly from President Trump despite him holding an Oval Office press conference yesterday in which he declined to make comments on developments in discussions over the anticipated meeting between Russia and Ukraine.

Whilst we are to expect low wind generation for much of this week, the latest forecast suggests we may see higher levels from early next week. Long range temperature forecasts show seasonal normal levels to be expected for the coming weeks to mid-October, as this now starts to become a focus for market price levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.77 (from €32.06) and the NBP Front Month contract at 78.01p (from 77.56p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 238mcm (235). EU gas storage showing at 78.08% (77.51%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 78p, Front Season 85p (vs 78p and 85p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 79p)
UK Power Base spot £79 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£74) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($68) and EUAs are at €74 (€74). Henry Hub is at $3.01 ($3.00) and JKM is at $11.25 ($11.22) with TTF Equiv of $10.87 ($11.02).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.