Market Insights 02/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 02/09/2025

After a bearish looking start to the day, price levels rose slightly above last weeks close quite early on to settle relatively close to the Friday settlement come the end of the session.

No real change to underlying fundamentals, and little in terms of developing new stories in relation to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine – where an expected meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy still remains …. expected.

Meanwhile Russia and China have agreed a new gas supply deal that will see increased volumes delivered via existing pipelines as well as through the new Power of Siberia 2 pipeline – at prices expected to be at a discount to those of the European hubs.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.06 (from €31.62) and the NBP Front Month contract at 77.56p (from 77.83p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 239mcm (235). EU gas storage showing at 77.51% (77.30%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 78p, Front Season 85p (vs 78p and 84p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £83 (from £49)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£73) and Front Season at £83 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $68 ($67) and EUAs are at €74 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.00 ($3.00) and JKM is at $11.22 ($11.22) with TTF Equiv of $11.02 ($10.86).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.