Market Insights 01/09/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 01/09/2025

Welcome along to September.

As we move into the final month of summer delivery, the winter delivery contracts become the focal point for the markets.

EU gas storage levels are now pushing closer to 80%, still below where we have typically seen it in recent years, and has fallen behind the 2022 trendline being followed earlier on in the summer.

Norwegian production will be lower than usual due to the planned maintenance for at least the first half of September.

These factors are all considered in the current price levels, and so temperature expectations for the winter will start to become a focus in the coming weeks.

Improved wind generation over the weekend pushed spot prices to lower levels, not seen in many weeks, but that is expected to be short lived as the forecasts show some volatility in generation levels over the coming days.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.62 (from €31.71) and the NBP Front Month contract at 77.83p (from 77.95p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 235mcm (255). EU gas storage showing at 77.30% (76.64%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €31, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €31, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 78p, Front Season 84p (vs 78p and 84p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 79p)
UK Power Base spot £49 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £73 (£76) and Front Season at £82 (£81).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($69) and EUAs are at €73 (€72). Henry Hub is at $3.00 ($2.94) and JKM is at $11.22 ($11.21) with TTF Equiv of $10.86 ($10.87).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.