Market Insights 29/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 29/08/2025

A further move downwards seen in yesterdays session.

Whilst the Norwegian gas output continues to decline, resulting from planned maintenance ahead of the winter season, strong LNG and wind generation help to offset that.

The price levels did push downwards a little harder than the settlement quotes show but were pulled back by technical levels being hit, but remained to show a decline for the day.

We have a new front month contract quoted today with the expiry of the September contract.

We are expecting some higher wind generation on Sunday which may impact spot prices, before that quickly erodes and falls to generally low levels in the latest forecasts.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.71 (from €32.55) and the NBP Front Month contract at 77.95p (from 80.43p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 255mcm (273). EU gas storage showing at 76.64% (76.43%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 78p, Front Season 84p (vs 80p and 86p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £83 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£76) and Front Season at £81 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($68) and EUAs are at €72 (€72). Henry Hub is at $2.94 ($2.89) and JKM is at $11.21 ($11.31) with TTF Equiv of $10.87 ($11.08).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.