Market Insights 27/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 27/08/2025

A small downward movement in a fairly muted session, largely unwinding the gains from the previous, seen yesterday as consecutive upward movements for the last week came to an end.

This morning Ofgem confirmed the latest quarterly update to the domestic price cap, setting it at £1,755 from 1st October (from £1,720), an increase of £35 from the currently in force July cap. Whilst wholesale energy costs have reduced by around 2% the network and policy costs within the cap have increased by around 7%. The overall increase is around 2%.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.46 (from €33.77) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.13p (from 83.67p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 281mcm (298). EU gas storage showing at 76.24% (75.99%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €33 and €35)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 89p (vs 84p and 90p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 85p)
UK Power Base spot £84 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£78) and Front Season at £84 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($69) and EUAs are at €73 (€72). Henry Hub is at $2.72 ($2.70) and JKM is at $11.49 ($11.55) with TTF Equiv of $11.43 ($11.56).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.