Market Insights 26/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 26/08/2025

A further move upwards seen on Friday.

No developments, publicly at least, on the Russia-Ukraine meeting which was expected to be held, or arranged, relatively quickly following the US-Russia meeting over a week ago now.

Norwegian gas production is currently at reduced levels as we are now into a period of planned maintenance which is to effect output for around a month. That may have a firming effect on price levels, particularly with low wind generation forecast continuing for the coming weeks – although a couple of days this week may just about push above the key 10GW mark.

This week will also see us closing the September contract and then moving into the winter delivery contracts at the front and seeing Q1 and Summer 2026 as the next major focal products.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.77 (from €33.18) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.67p (from 82.47p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 298mcm (308). EU gas storage showing at 75.99% (74.76%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €35 (vs €34 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 90p (vs 82p and 89p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 83p)
UK Power Base spot £84 (from £82)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £78 (£77) and Front Season at £84 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($68) and EUAs are at €72 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.70 ($2.83) and JKM is at $11.55 ($11.44) with TTF Equiv of $11.56 ($11.30).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.