Market Insights 22/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 22/08/2025

A further upwards push seen yesterday.

On top of reducing Norwegian output, as we enter a planned maintenance period, several new stories are likely to have pushed the market upwards in yesterdays session.

A Ukrainian national was arrested in Italy in relation to the Nord Stream AG attacks in late 2022. It has long been suspected this act of sabotage was instigated in an attempt to limit the sale of Russian gas towards Europe with plenty of finger pointing in all directions as to who was involved.

Further Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure took place yesterday, which will have also influenced concerns in the market.

The White House have a scheduled Oval Office address from the President today at 12 noon (5pm UK). It is widely speculated this may be related to the Russia-Ukraine topic, as it has dominated the worlds attention for the past week and it is expected that further face to face meetings are due to take place imminently.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.18 (from €31.91) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.47p (from 79.04p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 308mcm (317). EU gas storage showing at 74.76% (74.49%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €33 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 82p, Front Season 89p (vs 79p and 86p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 81p)
UK Power Base spot £82 (from £80)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£75) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $68 ($67) and EUAs are at €73 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.83 ($2.75) and JKM is at $11.44 ($11.11) with TTF Equiv of $11.30 ($10.91).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.