Market Insights 21/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/08/2025

An upwards push seen yesterday.

Likely mixed reasons, including technical levels being hit after several soft/quiet sessions, but also that of the latest Commitment of Traders report which showed further shrinking of the net long position of Investment Funds by 24 TWh, making that seven of the last eight weeks showing a reduction reducing from a high of 190 TWh to 81 TWh in the period.

Comments in relation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict – which saw the UK issue further sanctions on Russia (and reciprocated by Russia) – may also have impacted. It was thought further sanctions would only be issued if Russia did not proceed with further talks and the UK commented that the US were also due to issue new sanctions.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.91 (from €31.23) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.04p (from 76.82p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 317mcm (321). EU gas storage showing at 74.49% (74.21%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 86p (vs 77p and 84p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 76p)
UK Power Base spot £80 (from £78)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£73) and Front Season at £83 (£81).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($66) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.75 ($2.77) and JKM is at $11.11 ($10.92) with TTF Equiv of $10.91 ($10.69).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.