Market Insights 18/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 18/08/2025

A fairly hard push downwards was seen on Friday afternoon, largely in anticipation of a positive meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska.

The outcome does seem to have been positive with nearly three hours of talks with little given away in the press conference that followed. Over the weekend discussions between President Trump and President Zelenskyy and various European leaders, including those from the European Commission and NATO, has resulted in an unprecedented trip of many of those to visit The White House today to meet with President Trump.

Meanwhile, and before the two Presidents met on Friday, Putin signed a decree potentially opening the way for ExxonMobil and other foreign investors to reclaim their stake in the Sakhalin-1 LNG project.

Once again, all eyes will be on events as the unfold in real time with todays discussions, however are likely to be after markets close.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.03 (from €32.14) and the NBP Front Month contract at 76.45p (from 78.81p).

Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 317mcm (321). EU gas storage showing at 73.57% (72.74%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €31, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €31, Front Season €32 (vs €31 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 76p, Front Season 84p (vs 79p and 87p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £85 (from £79)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £73 (£75) and Front Season at £81 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $66 ($67) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.92 ($2.84) and JKM is at $10.95 ($11.91) with TTF Equiv of $10.66 ($10.98).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.