Market Insights 15/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 15/08/2025

A small move downwards seen in yesterdays session.

Today is the day in which the two Presidents of the US and Russia meet in Alaska – a much-anticipated meeting for many around the world, not just those in Ukraine.

Their talks could be very influential on a number of items, and in particular global markets, depending on how progressive they are.

It is likely that this meeting could simply be a framework to see if a deal could potentially be reached, although it is likely that Russia will be keen to set out their expectations – to include potential land grabbing of Ukrainian territory, removal of sanctions, allowing Russian energy to flow.

The meeting will take place after markets close in Europe and so we will not see the impact until early next week, and so a continued steady state may continue in the markets today.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.14 (from €32.60) and the NBP Front Month contract at 78.81p (from 80.54p).

Ormen Lange remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 321mcm (325). EU gas storage showing at 72.74% (72.49%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €34 (vs €32 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 87p (vs 81p and 88p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 82p)
UK Power Base spot £79 (from £88)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£76) and Front Season at £82 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($66) and EUAs are at €71 (€72). Henry Hub is at $2.84 ($2.83) and JKM is at $11.91 ($11.93) with TTF Equiv of $10.98 ($11.21).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.