Market Insights 13/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 13/08/2025

A soft session seen once again yesterday as Mondays gains, which replaced the losses from late on Friday, were once again removed. This is mostly focussed on the near term delivery products with the curve remaining still.

As we edge closer to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin on Friday, plenty of analysis in relation to what a deal may look like are being speculated which includes redrawing of land borders, removing of sanctions and of course whether or not energy products will be allowed to be exported again.

With Ukraine and Europe not in attendance, it remains to be seen what can actually be agreed or whether this will simply end with a deal outline for consideration – although it seems likely any such terms will not be immediately acceptable to Ukraine.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.41 (from €33.00) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.48p (from 81.25p).

Ormen Lange remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 329mcm (328). EU gas storage showing at 72.27% (71.96%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €32 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 88p (vs 81p and 89p)
UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 82p)
UK Power Base spot £85 (from £85)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£78) and Front Season at £83 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $66 ($67) and EUAs are at €72 (€72). Henry Hub is at $2.81 ($2.95) and JKM is at $11.93 ($11.94) with TTF Equiv of $11.12 ($11.24).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.