Market Insights 12/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 12/08/2025

Whilst we wait for the anticipated meeting between the US and Russian Presidents, which may or may not include the Ukrainian President, it seems the structure of a deal may see a ‘take it or leave it’ scenario for Ukraine and its European allies to face at the risk of US support changing if the latter is chosen.

Whilst late last week markets appeared buoyant at the thought of a deal being done, comments over the weekend seem to have pushed a series of questions as to how likely that may actually be and, as a result, pushed the market back upwards from the losses seen at the end of last week.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.00 (from €32.45) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.25p (from 79.53p).

Ormen Lange on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 328mcm (329). EU gas storage showing at 71.96% (71.62%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €33 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 89p (vs 80p and 88p)
UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £85 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £78 (£77) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($67) and EUAs are at €72 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.95 ($2.99) and JKM is at $11.94 ($11.93) with TTF Equiv of $11.24 ($11.11).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.