Market Insights 11/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/08/2025

Markets saw a fall late on Friday as news of the long-awaited meeting between the US and Russian Presidents was confirmed.

That meeting is due to take place on Friday in Alaska. It is not yet confirmed whether President Zelenskyy will be present or whether any European representation will also be present. They have both made clear that any ‘deal’ struck would need to include them and that any occupied land will not be given up – something the US President has suggested may need to be the case to see a deal be reached.

That will likely be the focus of the markets attention for much of this week, including whether any potential deal would include the supply of Russian gas to Europe.

Meanwhile high temperatures are expected for the coming days, and relatively low wind generation, which may keep spot prices firm.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.45 (from €32.96) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.53p (from 81.04p).

Ormen Lange on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 329mcm (340). EU gas storage showing at 71.62% (70.67%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €34 (vs €32 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 80p, Front Season 88p (vs 81p and 90p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £84 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£78) and Front Season at £83 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($66) and EUAs are at €73 (€72). Henry Hub is at $2.99 ($3.07) and JKM is at $11.93 ($11.94) with TTF Equiv of $11.11 ($11.25).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.