Market Insights 05/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 05/08/2025

Markets continue to hold rangebound, as they have done for many of the recent sessions of late.

Higher winds expected today pushed the day ahead spot market to low values. With the exception of further strong winds expected again on Thursday, we’re back to low generation as we reach the weekend and into next week and therefore a bound back in spot price levels is expected.

Norways Hammerfest LNG has returned from maintenance, after being extended by a few days which, alongside strong pipeline output, will help give the market some confidence. Gas storage levels touching 70% and with almost three full months of injections remaining ahead of the 1st November target, 90% seems within reach – despite the European Commission lowering the expectation.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.28 (from €33.97) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.59p (from 83.88p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 340mcm (339). EU gas storage showing at 69.68% (69.20%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 93p (vs 84p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £16 (from £50)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £78 (£79) and Front Season at £85 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($70) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.93 ($3.08) and JKM is at $12.01 ($12.00) with TTF Equiv of $11.64 ($11.51).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.