Market Insights 04/08/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/08/2025

Welcome along to August, and we’re back after a couple of weeks break.

It seems we didn’t miss out on much – the front month contracts have risen a little whilst the curve remain very much level to where we left them. Note that the numbers in brackets in this report are where we left off a couple of week ago in mid-July.

European gas storage levels now close to touching the 70% mark, Norwegian gas output levels strong at 339mcm – although some further planned maintenance is due later this month.

Trumps tariffs continue to be a topic of concern, although most countries seem to be agreeing new trade deals before elevated tariff levels are forced on them. The deadline to President Putin to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end is quickly approaching which may be the focus of markets this week.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.97 (from €34.41) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.88p (from 82.09p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 339mcm (317). EU gas storage showing at 69.20% (63.88%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 93p (vs 82p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 75p)
UK Power Base spot £50 (from £89)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £79 (£75) and Front Season at £85 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $70 ($70) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.08 ($3.54) and JKM is at $12.00 ($12.18) with TTF Equiv of $11.51 ($11.70).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.