Market Insights 18/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 18/07/2025

A small downward movement, mostly towards the end of the session, seen yesterday.

Technical factors may be the main driver, hitting key resistance levels and other indicators such as moving averages.

Meanwhile Germanys largest gas storage site Rehden, which accounts for around 18% of the country’s total storage capacity, secured some capacity in auctions yesterday for the upcoming winter. Whilst there is plenty of capacity still to sell, recent auctions have shown limited interest. Currently the site holds just 4% of its total capacity and is expected to hit at least 45% ahead of next winter – although last winter it was filled to the max.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.41 (from €34.81) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.09p (from 83.67p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 317mcm (272). EU gas storage showing at 63.88% (63.49%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 82p, Front Season 93p (vs 84p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 75p (from 90p)
UK Power Base spot £89 (from £88)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£76) and Front Season at £86 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $70 ($69) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.54 ($3.55) and JKM is at $12.18 ($12.41) with TTF Equiv of $11.70 ($11.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.