Market Insights 17/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/07/2025

A small upward movement seen in the nearer term delivery contracts seen yesterday.

Most likely on the back of issues with unplanned outages from the Norwegian assets, with further reductions in output again over the last 24 hours.

The latest Commitment of Traders report shows that last week Investment Fund net positions grew by around 17 TWh, which may explain some of the market direction seen during that period.

Temperatures expected to remain above seasonal normal for the time being, and UK wind generation also looks largely unchanged – limited to around 7GW.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.81 (from €34.45) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.67p (from 85.32p).

Kollsnes joins Nyhamna on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 272mcm (290). EU gas storage showing at 63.49% (63.24%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (3).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €36 (vs €35 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 94p (vs 82p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 90p (from 83p)
UK Power Base spot £88 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£74) and Front Season at £87 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($69) and EUAs are at €71 (€72). Henry Hub is at $3.55 ($3.52) and JKM is at $12.41 ($12.30) with TTF Equiv of $11.93 ($11.74).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.