Market Insights 16/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 16/07/2025

A downward move was seen in yesterdays session after several fairly muted ones in recent days.

A mix of reasons are thought to be at play including pulling back from technical levels being hit with investment funds selling off after reaching intended levels.

In reality the downward move is relatively small and simply corrects to levels seen around this time last week after talks of US tariffs hit headlines again and pushed levels upwards.

Various Norwegian assets have suffered unplanned outages in recent days and the latest has a bigger impact on the daily flow levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.45 (from €35.45) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.32p (from 85.25p).

Nyhamna on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 290mcm (318). EU gas storage showing at 63.24% (62.98%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (3).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 82p, Front Season 94p (vs 85p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £83 (from £79)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£76) and Front Season at £86 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($69) and EUAs are at €72 (€70). Henry Hub is at $3.52 ($3.47) and JKM is at $12.30 ($13.12) with TTF Equiv of $11.74 ($12.16).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.