Market Insights 15/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 15/07/2025

A very flat day to get the week underway with hardly any noticeable movement between the settlement prices of yesterday and that of Friday across the board.

President Trump continues to be the main focus for markets as he continues his threats of tariffs on various countries to push new trade deals to be executed. Meanwhile he has now stepped more directly into the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which he had hoped would be over by now, by selling military equipment to NATO to support Ukraine whilst at the same time giving President Putin 50 days to negotiate else face 100% secondary tariffs – believed to be imposed on countries that supply Russia with weapons or buy their export products.

Meanwhile temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normal for the weeks ahead and whilst wind generation is forecast to be a little more mixed in the latest forecasts, it is still expected to be low – typically below 5GW – for the coming weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.45 (from €35.56) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.25p (from 85.27p).

Ormen Lange on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 318mcm (321). EU gas storage showing at 62.98% (62.58%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (3).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €37 (vs €35 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 96p (vs 85p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 85p)
UK Power Base spot £79 (from £78)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£76) and Front Season at £87 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($70) and EUAs are at €70 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.47 ($3.31) and JKM is at $13.12 ($13.12) with TTF Equiv of $12.16 ($12.21).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.