Market Insights 14/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 14/07/2025

A small further uptick seen in Fridays session to end a week of mostly upside.

Whilst underlying fundamentals have been largely unchanged for a period of time, geopolitical concerns appear to have once again creeped into the leading drivers with more talks of US tariffs last week.

Continuous low wind generation forecast in the UK is helping to keep spot prices firm with the higher temperatures we’ve also seen of late.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.56 (from €35.17) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.27p (from 84.20p).

Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 321mcm (322). EU gas storage showing at 62.58% (61.95%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €37 (vs €36 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 96p (vs 84p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £78 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£75) and Front Season at £87 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $70 ($70) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.31 ($3.34) and JKM is at $13.12 ($13.13) with TTF Equiv of $12.21 ($12.06).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.