Market Insights 07/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 07/07/2025

A quiet day, perhaps largely expected, seen on Friday with the last few sessions being fairly muted and the US markets closed due to a public holiday.

Fundamentals remain unchanged. Gas stocks now over 60% full, Norwegian output back to usual levels and low wind generation levels expected after today for the coming weeks will likely keep price levels relatively stable.

Wider afield, geopolitical influences also remained muted in recent sessions. These have been significantly impactful throughout the year so far and often come without warning.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.47 (from €33.62) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.59p (from 79.91p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 323mcm (322). EU gas storage showing at 60.29% (59.44%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €36 (vs €33 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 80p, Front Season 92p (vs 80p and 92p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 79p)
UK Power Base spot £65 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £72 (£73) and Front Season at £84 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $68 ($69) and EUAs are at €72 (€72). Henry Hub is at $3.41 ($3.41) and JKM is at $13.16 ($13.16) with TTF Equiv of $11.58 ($11.61).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.