Market Insights 03/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 03/07/2025

A fairly muted session seen yesterday.

Investment Funds had reduced their net long position by around 25 TWh in the latest Commitment of Traders report, aligned to the reduction in price levels over the past week,

Strong Norwegian output, gas stocks now hitting close to 60% and lower wind production for the weeks ahead (after a bit of an increase in the coming days) will all be kept an eye on whilst keeping the other eye on geopolitical events as always – now a key driver to market direction.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.59 (from €33.69) and the NBP Front Month contract at 80.11p (from 79.43p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 319mcm (318). EU gas storage showing at 59.15% (58.56%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €35)
Curve NBP Front Month 80p, Front Season 93p (vs 79p and 91p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £75 (from £87)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £73 (£72) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($67) and EUAs are at €72 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.49 ($3.42) and JKM is at $13.17 ($13.11) with TTF Equiv of $11.62 ($11.65).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.