Market Insights 02/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 02/07/2025

A small gain seen in yesterdays session, unwinding the move seen on Monday.

The market seems to have lost its underlying concern, for now at least, as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold.

Overnight President Trump announced that Israel had further agreed to a 60 day ceasefire over Gaza – with Hamas yet to confirm its agreement. This may further settle concerns of continuing and escalating conflict in the area – for now.

Low wind output for the weeks ahead, bar a day later this week, likely keep spot prices a little firmer. Cooler temperatures, after hitting over 30 degrees in recent days, may also help cool the demand side a little too.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.69 (from €32.90) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.43p (from 77.33p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 318mcm (317). EU gas storage showing at 58.90% (58.56%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €35 (vs €34 and €35)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 91p (vs 77p and 89p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 76p)
UK Power Base spot £87 (from £96)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £72 (£70) and Front Season at £83 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($67) and EUAs are at €71 (€69). Henry Hub is at $3.42 ($3.46) and JKM is at $13.11 ($13.13) with TTF Equiv of $11.65 ($11.36).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.