Market Insights 01/07/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 01/07/2025

Welcome along to July and halfway through 2025 already.

A quiet start to the week with just a small downward movement seen in yesterdays session.

Low wind generation and plenty of warm weather has pushed the electricity day ahead prices to recent highs in yesterdays auctions.

Today the latest Ofgem UK domestic price cap takes effect, at a headline rate of £1,720, which is down from the previous quarterly cap, and will change again effective October which is currently under calculation.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.90 (from €33.66) and the NBP Front Month contract at 77.33p (from 78.68p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 317mcm (319). EU gas storage showing at 58.56% (58.15%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 0 (0).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €35 (vs €33 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 77p, Front Season 89p (vs 79p and 91p)
UK Gas NBP spot 76p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £96 (from £77)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £70 (£72) and Front Season at £82 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($68) and EUAs are at €69 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.46 ($3.74) and JKM is at $13.13 ($13.20) with TTF Equiv of $11.36 ($11.58).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.