Market Insights 27/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 27/06/2025

A further downward step seen in price levels during yesterdays session as the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues to hold.

End of the week, and almost end of the month, position closing may take place today. Investment Funds have been increasing net long positions in recent weeks and now may look to unwind some of those as the market as the market has turned from its previous unsteady outlook.

That may put some further downward pressure on the market, with the Norwegian planned outages now out of the way until late August, gas storage levels now above 57% and the shipping related risks around the Middle East have faded whilst the ceasefire holds.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.02 (from €35.40) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.14p (from 82.68p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 315mcm (317). EU gas storage showing at 57.15% (56.90%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 93p (vs 83p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 82p)
UK Power Base spot £64 (from £74)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £72 (£76) and Front Season at £84 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $68 ($68) and EUAs are at €70 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.53 ($3.41) and JKM is at $13.33 ($13.54) with TTF Equiv of $11.67 ($12.07).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.