Market Insights 26/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 26/06/2025

As the ceasefire between Iran and Israel seems to hold, markets held steady yesterday.

NATO leaders met yesterday in The Hague to discuss pledging a commitment to reach 5% of GDP, whilst focussing on maintaining President Trump to be a key figure at the event.

Rumours circulated yesterday that Shell was looking to buy bp but that was later denied.

Meanwhile as we head towards the end of June, the Norwegian planned maintenance period heads to and end and we can see much improved output levels. More outages are planned for late August and into September.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.40 (from €35.62) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.68p (from 82.90p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 317mcm (310). EU gas storage showing at 56.90% (56.59%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €34 (vs €35 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 96p (vs 83p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 86p)
UK Power Base spot £74 (from £89)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£74) and Front Season at £87 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $68 ($67) and EUAs are at €71 (€74). Henry Hub is at $3.41 ($3.54) and JKM is at $13.54 ($13.52) with TTF Equiv of $12.07 ($12.13).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.