Market Insights 25/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 25/06/2025

After the events of the last few days, yesterday saw plenty of risk premium rapidly removed from prices levels from the start of the session.

Despite Israel claiming that an Iranian missile hit them after the ceasefire started, and intended to retaliate, markets held their nerve in the anticipation the ceasefire would hold – and so far it appears to have done that.

Threats including the closing of the Strait of Hormuz seem to have been set aside for now, allowing the continuation of shipping in the area.

That said, tensions will still remain at alerted levels. But for now, and whilst the ceasefire holds, the markets can breathe that sigh of relief after rising in the past few weeks as fears of escalation were played out.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.62 (from €40.52) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.90p (from 95.46p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 310mcm (301). EU gas storage showing at 56.59% (56.23%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €37 (vs €36 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 96p (vs 95p and 108p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 90p)
UK Power Base spot £89 (from £43)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£83) and Front Season at £87 (£95).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($71) and EUAs are at €74 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.54 ($3.70) and JKM is at $13.52 ($14.46) with TTF Equiv of $12.13 ($13.72).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.