Market Insights 24/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 24/06/2025

A whirlwind last few days with the US missile attack on Iran at the weekend causing huge concern that energy markets could rally in yesterdays session was muted.

Yesterdays session saw a small upward movement early on which was later a discount to Friday. Shortly after the market closed, Iran launched an attack on a US base in Qatar.

Whilst throughout the evening it was feared the US could react militarily, overnight it was announced that Iran, Israel and the US have brokered a ceasefire deal.

At the open today we have seen an incredible sigh of relief with more than 10% being eroded from the price levels.

Of course, concerns will still be present, the market certainly remains certainly cautious, and any breach to the ceasefire by any party would likely immediately inject concern premiums back into the market.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.52 (from €40.93) and the NBP Front Month contract at 95.46p (from 96.19p).

Oseberg unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 301mcm (310). EU gas storage showing at 56.23% (55.81%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, DOWN €5 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €42 (vs €41 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 95p, Front Season 108p (vs 96p and 109p)
UK Gas NBP spot 90p (from 104p)
UK Power Base spot £43 (from £20)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£81) and Front Season at £95 (£96).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($77) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.70 ($3.85) and JKM is at $14.46 ($14.26) with TTF Equiv of $13.72 ($13.82).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.