Market Insights 23/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 23/06/2025

The volatility continued all of last week, ending with a rather soft session on Friday.

That was of course until the US announced it had directly struck several sites in Iran over the weekend.

In response, Iran are expected to retaliate and this may include closing the Strait of Hormuz which was said to have the backing of the Iranian parliament. This would impact plenty of shipping in the area oil of and LNG – but could be self-inflicting to many of their Middle East neighbours.

Pre-market concerns were expectant of a rapid rise in price levels this morning, but that appears not to have been realised with a modest increase to Fridays close.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.93 (from €41.63) and the NBP Front Month contract at 96.19p (from 98.20p).

Oseberg unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 310mcm (283). EU gas storage showing at 55.81% (54.69%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €43 (vs €41 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 96p, Front Season 109p (vs 98p and 111p)
UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 97p)
UK Power Base spot £20 (from £91)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £81 (£83) and Front Season at £96 (£96).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($79) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.85 ($3.99) and JKM is at $14.26 ($13.88) with TTF Equiv of $13.82 ($14.00).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.