Market Insights 20/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 20/06/2025

A very volatile week so far this week, and a big upwards push seen in yesterdays session.

The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, with the US making comments around potentially getting involved in some way.

This is making markets extremely nervous as to what happens next. Whilst oil is the most likely energy market to be impacted – which is now close to $80/bbl – and having a knock on impact to prices at the pump, gas prices are also being impacted by the effects to LNG output and associated shipping in the area.

Until this situation is calmed, the market is likely to stay on heightened alert and be somewhat volatile – especially in reaction to comments made by the US President.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.63 (from €38.69) and the NBP Front Month contract at 98.20p (from 91.28p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 283mcm (278). EU gas storage showing at 54.69% (54.36%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €43 (vs €42 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 111p (vs 91p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 92p)
UK Power Base spot £91 (from £92)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£83) and Front Season at £96 (£93).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($77) and EUAs are at €73 (€75). Henry Hub is at $3.99 ($3.99) and JKM is at $13.88 ($13.88) with TTF Equiv of $14.00 ($13.08).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.