Market Insights 18/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 18/06/2025

A bullish session seen yesterday as QatarEnergy told LNG tankers to hold back from directly docking in the region as tensions escalate in the Middle East. This put some potential upward concern around flow levels.

It is believed that Irans oil output is already down on what it was recently and that Israeli attacks may have damaged some gas infrastructure also, reducing gas output as well.

The US are also said to be considering directly striking Iran, which would likely escalate matters further, as Israel and Iran continue to fire missiles at each other.

These underlying concerns pushed markets upwards in yesterdays session.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.31 (from €37.91) and the NBP Front Month contract at 92.93p (from 89.08p).

Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 279mcm (267). EU gas storage showing at 54.05% (53.76%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €41 (vs €39 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 93p, Front Season 105p (vs 89p and 101p)
UK Gas NBP spot 95p (from 92p)
UK Power Base spot £89 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£81) and Front Season at £93 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($73) and EUAs are at €75 (€75). Henry Hub is at $3.85 ($3.75) and JKM is at $14.01 ($13.59) with TTF Equiv of $13.28 ($12.88).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.