Market Insights 17/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/06/2025

A mixed session seen yesterday with the immediate and early reaction to head upwards in response to the escalations in the Middle East over the weekend.

However during the afternoon rumours circulated that Iran was willing to negotiate to end the conflict which cooled the market reaction and settled almost flat on the day.

That said, attacks continued and so the reaction was perhaps premature. Concerns seem to be focussed on the impact of oil and gas production in Iran. Iran temporarily suspended gas production in fear of it being attacked. Iran shares the worlds biggest gas field with Qatar – an attack here would certainly escalate matters considerably.

Back in Europe, the European Commission is expected today to outline its plans to ban all Russian gas, including LNG, by 2027 – with ensuring those that are opposed to the plan such as Hungary having limited impact to veto the plan.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €37.91 (from €37.89) and the NBP Front Month contract at 89.08p (from 89.80p).

Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 267mcm (253). EU gas storage showing at 53.76% (53.33%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (3).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €40 (vs €38 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 89p, Front Season 101p (vs 90p and 101p)
UK Gas NBP spot 92p (from 93p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £87)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £81 (£82) and Front Season at £91 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($74) and EUAs are at €75 (€76). Henry Hub is at $3.75 ($3.58) and JKM is at $13.59 ($13.39) with TTF Equiv of $12.88 ($12.86).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.