Market Insights 16/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 16/06/2025

Markets have been showing some levels of concern with the escalation of attacks in the Middle East in recent days.

Both Iran and Israel both attacking each others infrastructure over the weekend, causing oil and gas terminals to either stop or suspend activities caused by damage or threat of attack.

Oil prices have risen by around $5/bbl in recent days. Iran is a large exporter of oil, but far from the largest, hence the concern shown by the markets.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €37.89 (from €36.18) and the NBP Front Month contract at 89.80p (from 84.89p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 253mcm (221). EU gas storage showing at 53.33% (52.44%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (3).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €39 (vs €38 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 90p, Front Season 101p (vs 85p and 97p)
UK Gas NBP spot 93p (from 88p)
UK Power Base spot £87 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£78) and Front Season at £91 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($69) and EUAs are at €76 (€75). Henry Hub is at $3.58 ($3.49) and JKM is at $13.39 ($12.46) with TTF Equiv of $12.86 ($12.29).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.