Market Insights 12/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 12/06/2025

An upwards push seen in yesterdays session, retracing much of the downwards movement seen in recent sessions.

Japans JERA Co., Inc. has secured a series of 20 year deals to buy more US LNG, taking its mix from around 10% to 30%. This will reduce the amount available for Europe over that time.

There was also concerns around the French nuclear stations – which have been often the case in recent years – with new cracks being found which may see some reduced output whilst those are investigated. French nuclear output is substantial in the European balance and so any unplanned reduction here will mean more gas for power generation.

As a result gas was up across the curve in yesterdays session. A higher wind generation is expected today which pushed the power day ahead price down. Wind generation is expected to level off after today passes for the remainder of the month.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.92 (from €34.64) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.17p (from 80.50p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 271mcm (266). EU gas storage showing at 52.07% (51.79%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €37 (vs €36 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 96p (vs 81p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £50 (from £79)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£75) and Front Season at £87 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $70 ($67) and EUAs are at €74 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.51 ($3.53) and JKM is at $12.45 ($12.41) with TTF Equiv of $12.11 ($11.61).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.