Market Insights 11/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/06/2025

A further downward movement seen yesterday as Germanys SEFE Securing Energy for Europe GmbH announced a 10 year deal with Azerbaijans State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) to import 15 TWh of gas per year, starting later this year, which will give some further comfort to the European supply balance.

Later in the day the European Commission announced its 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which includes banning transactions that include both the Nord Stream pipelines – both currently damaged and out of action – as well as financial sanctions which include lowering the price cap of Russian oil to $45/bbl (from $60) to further limit revenue for the Russian state.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.64 (from €35.61) and the NBP Front Month contract at 80.50p (from 82.51p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 266mcm (265). EU gas storage showing at 51.79% (51.40%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €36 (vs €35 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 93p (vs 83p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 83p)
UK Power Base spot £79 (from £80)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£76) and Front Season at £85 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($67) and EUAs are at €73 (€74). Henry Hub is at $3.53 ($3.64) and JKM is at $12.41 ($12.44) with TTF Equiv of $11.61 ($11.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.