Market Insights 05/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 05/06/2025

A flat session overall yesterday, but perhaps one of two halves.

With some small adjustments to the planned Norwegian outages, but flows still expected to drop as much as 100mcm in the coming days, and wind generation levels dropping over the coming weeks – this would have pushed markets upwards a bit and we saw that early on in the session.

During the afternoon, those concerns seemed to have faded slightly and prices came back to where they started the day by the close as Hungary confirmed it was sending Russian gas flows to Ukraine. Ukraine has been saying for some time now, since the transit deal ended at the head of the year, that it is running low and will need to import – and it’s storage levels are alarmingly low – still only just at 7% full.

Late in the day, President Trump confirmed he held a call with President Putin who confirmed Russia would retaliate to the Ukrainian attack on its military aircraft at the weekend. So we may see some concerns return in todays session.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.65 (from €35.85) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.36p (from 83.49p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 262mcm (296). EU gas storage showing at 49.55% (49.20%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €37 (vs €36 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 94p (vs 83p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £74 (from £57)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£75) and Front Season at £85 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $65 ($66) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.72 ($3.72) and JKM is at $12.37 ($12.33) with TTF Equiv of $11.95 ($11.97).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.