Market Insights 04/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/06/2025

A continuation of the upward trend seen in yesterdays session.

With lower Norwegian output expected throughout June, mostly due to planned maintenance which may see up to 100mcm lower flows, this seems to be the main focal point of the current concerns.

If we look at the injection trend, which we ideally need to maintain following the 2022 profile, we are just about holding with 49.2% currently compared to 48.1% at this point in 2022.

With further, and much larger, Norwegian outages planned in September the current injection rate is important to maintain to ensure enough gas is in store.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.85 (from €35.02) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.49p (from 81.47p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 296mcm (297). EU gas storage showing at 49.20% (48.86%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €37 (vs €36 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 95p (vs 81p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £57 (from £26)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£74) and Front Season at £85 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $66 ($65) and EUAs are at €73 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.72 ($3.69) and JKM is at $12.33 ($12.30) with TTF Equiv of $11.97 ($11.75).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.