Market Insights 03/06/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 03/06/2025

A bullish move upwards to start the week.

Talks between Russia and Ukraine took place yesterday, albeit seemingly a short discussion at which proposals were exchanged for consideration. It is believed the Russian expectation is unmoved from its previous stance. This follows a significant Ukrainian drone attack on Russian military aircraft over the weekend.

Strong wind levels have pushed electricity spot prices low today, which is expected to recede for the remainder of the week.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.02 (from €34.23) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.47p (from 79.62p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 297mcm (285). EU gas storage showing at 48.86% (48.32%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €36 (vs €35 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 93p (vs 80p and 91p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 79p)
UK Power Base spot £26 (from £66)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£73) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $65 ($63) and EUAs are at €71 (€70). Henry Hub is at $3.69 ($3.45) and JKM is at $12.30 ($12.16) with TTF Equiv of $11.75 ($11.41).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.