Market Insights 30/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 30/05/2025

A small downward movement seen in yesterdays session as the June contracts come to a close, meaning our front month references also move on a month.

The Norwegian output slowly increasing, back above 300mcm now, will help the confidence levels in terms of supply.

Controversy in the US over President Trumps tariffs, initially blocked by the judicial system early in the day which may have caused the market some concern, were later permitted following appeal. As we saw when this was first announced in early April, this may impact the output of major manufacturers across Europe and potentially reduce energy demand as a result. Europe face a 50% tariff from this weekend.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.40 (from €36.69) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.16p (from 87.81p).

Troll remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 301mcm (295). EU gas storage showing at 47.15% (46.87%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €37 (vs €35 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 94p (vs 88p and 98p)
UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 87p)
UK Power Base spot £59 (from £48)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £72 (£73) and Front Season at £85 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $64 ($65) and EUAs are at €71 (€72). Henry Hub is at $3.52 ($3.56) and JKM is at $12.30 ($12.47) with TTF Equiv of $11.82 ($12.14).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.