Market Insights 28/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 28/05/2025

A mixed day seen yesterday as speculation of the US looking to impose sanctions on Russia were circulating early afternoon, but then failed to hold with any convicting impact on the market.

Norwegian flows still below their ‘normal’ levels thanks to planned maintenance which is also topped off with some unplanned outages – which will likely keep the markets firm. This may impact the injection rate of storage, although we are still just about holding the key 2022 trend line.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €37.01 (from €37.25) and the NBP Front Month contract at 88.46p (from 87.15p).

Visund and Troll remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 278mcm (276). EU gas storage showing at 46.58% (46.30%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €38 (vs €37 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 88p, Front Season 98p (vs 87p and 97p)
UK Gas NBP spot 94p (from 90p)
UK Power Base spot £80 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£78) and Front Season at £87 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $64 ($65) and EUAs are at €72 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.40 ($3.33) and JKM is at $12.50 ($12.49) with TTF Equiv of $12.30 ($12.43).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.